摘要：当前全球能源格局正在发生显著变化。一方面，美国页岩气革命成功以及加拿大油砂大量开采，使得全球非常规油气迅猛发展，形成北美“非常规油气版图”与中东“常规油气版图”遥相呼应的世界化石能源供应新格局。但受世界经济增长放缓、贸易摩擦、地缘政治冲突等因素影响，全球能源市场短期风险上升。2019年油气整体消费增速放缓，全球煤炭产业进入深度调整期，OPEC和国际能源署更是多次下调全球原油需求增长预期。2020年年初全球暴发的新冠肺炎疫情进一步给国际能源市场带来巨大冲击。全球原油需求大幅下降，叠加沙特和俄罗斯石油价格战，以及美国制裁伊朗的不断升级，布伦特原油现货价格在2020年4月1日跌至近20年来的最低。短期内油气需求的大幅下降必将加剧产油国之间争夺消费市场份额的矛盾和冲突。如果疫情能够在2020年下半年得到有效控制，世界经济和原油需求可能会得到部分修复，预计全球原油日需求量在2020年将会下降1000万桶左右，在2021年将会强劲反弹，增长800万桶左右，但比2019年低200万桶左右，在2022年恢复常态化增长，将比2019年增长100万桶左右，布伦特原油中枢价格在2020年将在40美元/桶左右震荡，2021年可能反弹至50美元/桶左右。鉴于更多国家将天然气作为传统能源与清洁能源之间的过渡能源，预期未来1—3年，全球天然气市场将继续供给充足，管道天然气和液化天然气的贸易量将不断扩大。而中国、印度等亚太地区大国将是全球油气进口增长的主力军。另一方面，气候变化加速了全球能源供需结构的多元化调整，以高效、清洁、低碳、智能为主要特征的能源转型进程持续推进。2010—2018年，全球太阳能光伏发电平准化度电成本（LCOE）大幅下降了近80%，陆上风力发电下降46%，海上风力发电下降44%。2019年光伏和风电成为许多国家新增电力装机中最便宜的两种发电形式。可再生能源电力成本下降的趋势可能持续到下一个十年。随着风电成本的持续降低，预计未来五年全球风电市场将平稳扩大，到2040年，风力发电将和光伏发电一样，在全球电力供给结构中占据更加重要的位置。
中国能源禀赋特点是“富煤、贫油、少气”，这决定了煤炭作为中国能源生产与消费主要来源的地位短期内不会改变。2019年，中国能源政策着力增强能源有效供给，加快石油、天然气、电力和新能源领域关键环节的市场化改革的落实。能源生产稳中趋缓，油气增产、国内勘探开发取得重要进展以及中俄东线天然气管道建设，从战略层面提升了中国能源安全保障能力。能源消费结构进一步优化，尽管化石能源依然是供电的主要来源，但供电体系正向更加绿色、现代化、可持续能源体系逐渐转变。煤炭消费占初级能源消费比例在2018年首次降至60%以下。可再生能源装机占比持续提高，2019年水电、核电、风电和太阳能发电占全部发电量的27.7%。但由于政策变化和市场环境等因素的影响，光伏装机增速放缓。受全球跨境能源直接投资总体下降影响，2019年中国对外能源直接投资规模也大幅下降，对外能源直接投资目的地主要集中在亚洲、拉美和北美地区。2020年开局新冠肺炎疫情的快速蔓延给中国的交通运输、居民消费和企业生产经营造成巨大冲击，能源市场所受波及尤其明显。随着3月中下旬中国疫情的全面好转以及复工复产速度的加快，预计2020年第2季度后中国油气需求会有所回升，煤炭产量也将出现先抑后扬局面。未来几年，提高煤炭能源的清洁使用率和增加对可再生能源等清洁能源的使用比例，将是中国能源转型结构调整的主要方向。
第三部分分析了美国制裁伊朗对原油和经济的影响。美国暗杀伊朗将领苏莱曼尼事件曾引发了国际原油和金融市场震荡。鉴于美伊军事实力差距悬殊，未来双方关系很可能走向局部小规模冲突，不会发展升级为直接战争，且冲突地点很可能发生在叙利亚、伊拉克，远离原油生产和运输密集的海湾地区。美国严厉的经济制裁，显著加大了伊朗的经济和民生困难，导致伊朗政权和社会不稳定隐患明显增多。虽然美国制裁伊朗将会对国际原油价格产生显著影响，但这一影响是短期的和可控的，对于全球经济和金融市场的影响预计较小。美伊冲突对中国的影响主要是原油价格变动和原油供应安全问题。若伊朗因美国经济制裁陷入政局动荡，中国的利益受损将较大，不仅原油进口成本增加，原油供应中断风险上升，而且中国在伊朗的油气权益资产将严重受损。中国应密切关注事态发展，适当增加原油战略储备，加快推进原油进口多元化进程，加强提升中国原油供应和运输安全的能力建设。中国金融机构和企业需高度重视美国对伊朗追加制裁所引发的业务合规问题，避免再遭受美国制裁。
关键词：能源展望；世界；中国；美国制裁伊朗
Abstract：At present，the global energy pattern is undergoing profound changes.On the one hand，the successful shale gas revolution in the United States and the large-scale oil production from oil sands deposits in Canada have led to the rapid developmentof global unconventional oil and gas，forming a new pattern of global fossil energy supply，where the “unconventional oil and gas territory”in North America echoes with the“conventional oil and gas territory”in theMiddleEast. However，the short-term risks of global energy market have increased due to the slowdown of global economic growth，trade frictions，geopolitical conflicts and other factors.In 2019，the overall consumption growth of natural gas slowed down，and the global coal industry entered a period of deep adjustment.The Organization of Oil Exporting Countries（OPEC）and the International Energy Agency（IEA）lowered the growth expectation for global crude oil demand for many times.The COVID-19 outbreak in early 2020 has exerted great impact on the international energy market.W ith the sharp decline of global crude oil demand，coupled with the oil pricewar between Saudi Arabia and Russia，and the escalating conflict between the U.S.and Iran，the spot price of Brent crude oil fell to its lowest level in recent 20 years on April 1，2020.In the short term，the sharp decline of oil and gas demand will aggravate the contradiction and conflict between oil producing countries in competing for the share of consumptionmarket.If the pandemic can be effectively controlled in the second half of 2020，the world economy and crude oil demand may recover to some extent.It is expected that the daily global crude oil demand will decrease by about 10 million barrels in 2020 and rebound strongly in 2021，with an increase of about 8 million barrels，which is still2million barrels lower than that in 2019.In 2022，itwill resume normal growth，increase by about1million barrels compared with that in 2019.The central price ofBrent crude oil will fluctuate around＄40/barrel in 2020 andmay rebound to around＄50/barrel in 2021.Asmore and more countries are using natural gas as the transitional energy between traditional energy and clean energy，it is expected that the global natural gasmarket will continue to have sufficient supply in the next 1-3 years，and the trade volume of pipeline natural gas （PNG）and liquefied natural gas（LNG）will constantly increase.China，India and other Asia Pacific countries will be the main contributors of global oil and gas import growth.On the other hand，climate changes have accelerated the diversified adjustment of global energy supply and demand structure，and the energy transformation process featured by high efficiency，cleanness，low carbon and intelligence has been continuously promoted.During 2010-2018，the global levelized cost of energy（LCOE）of solar photovoltaic power generation dropped by nearly 80%，that of onshore wind power generation decreased by 46%，and that of offshore wind power generation decreased by 44%.In 2019，photovoltaic and wind power generation became the two cost-effective forms of power generation inmany countries.The decreasing cost of renewable power generation is likely to continue into the next decade. With the continuous reduction ofwind power cost，it isexpected that the global wind power market will expand steadily in the next five years.By 2040，wind power will occupy a more important position in the global power supply structure just like photovoltaic power generation.
China's energy endowment is characterized by“rich in coal，poor in oil and gas”，which determines that coal，as the main source ofChina's energy production and consumption，will still take a prominent position in the short term.In 2019，China issued energy policies to vigorously enhance the effective supply of energy and accelerate the implementation ofmarket-oriented reforms in key processes of oil，natural gas，electricity and new energy fields.China has improved the capacity to guarantee energy security from the strategic level by realizing steady energy production，increasing oil and gas production，making significant progress in domestic prospecting and development，and constructingChina-RussiaEast-RouteNaturalGasPipeline. The energy consumption structure has been further optimized. A lthough fossil energy is still themain source of power supply，the power supply system is gradually becoming more green，modern and sustainable.The proportion of coal consumption in total primary energy consumption decreased to 60%for the first time in 2018.The proportion of installed renewable energy plants constantly increased，and by 2019，hydropower，nuclear power，wind power and solar power generation accounted for 27.7%of the total power generation.However，the installation of photovoltaic power generation system witnessed slower growth due to policy changes，market environment and other factors. The scale ofChina's direct investment in foreign energy has also declined significantly in 2019 due to the impact of the overall decline of global direct investment in cross-border energy. China's foreign direct investment in energy was mainly concentrated in Asia，Latin America and North America.At the beginning of2020，the rapid spread of the COVID-19 exerted huge impact on China's transportation，residents'consumption，the production and operation of enterprises，especially those in the energy market.Since the middle and late March，the pandemic situation in China has been brought under effective control，and business resumption and production have been accelerated.It is expected thatChina's oil and gas demand will rebound after the second quarter of 2020，and the coal production will be restrained firstand then increase.In the next few years，China's energy restructuring will focus on improving the clean utilization rate of coal energy and increasing the utilization rate of renewable energy and other clean energy.
The third part analyzes the U.S.-Iran conflict and its impact on crude oil and economy.The U.S.assassination of Iran's top general Qasem Soleimani triggered shocks in international oil and financialmarkets.In view of the disparity inmilitary strength between the U.S.and Iran，the two sides are likely to have local small-scale conflicts in the future，which will not develop into a directwar，and the conflicts are likely to occur in Syria and Iraq，far away from the Gulf region where crude oil production and transportation are intensive.The severe economic sanctions imposed by the U.S.have posed significant difficulties to the economic development and people's life in Iran，resulting in an increase in the potential risks of political and social instability in Iran.TheU.S.-Iran conflictmay exert a significant impact on international crude oil prices in the future，but the impactmay be temporary and controllable，and its impact on global economy and financialmarkets is expected to be small.For China，the U.S.-Iran conflict may pose fluctuation in crude oil price and security problems of crude oil supply.If Iran falls into political turmoil due to severe economic sanctions imposed by theU.S.，China's interestswill be greatly undermined：The import costof crude oilwill increase，the risk of crude oil supply disruptionmay rise，and China's oil and gas equity assets in Iran will be seriously impaired.China should pay close attention to the development of the situation，appropriately increase the strategic reserves of crude oil，accelerate the process of diversified crude oil imports，and strengthen the capacity-building tomaintain the safety ofChina's crude oil supply and transportation.Chinese financial institutions and enterprises need to attach great importance to the business compliance issues caused by the additional sanctions imposed by the U.S.on Iran，and avoid further sanctions imposed by the U.S.
Key Words：Energy Outlook，World，China，US' Sanctions on Iran